The Current Tin Market Situation
Tin prices on the London Metal Exchange (LME) have experienced a decline of 20%, currently hovering around $26,500 per metric ton. This decrease comes after hitting a six-month peak of $32,680 in January last year. Taking potential additional supply from Myanmar into account, Bank of America strategist Danica Averion highlights the possibility of easing in the market by 2024.
However, despite near-term headwinds, the fundamentals of the tin market look robust in the long run, largely driven by the growth in solar energy and electric vehicle adoption. Bank of America estimates a surplus of 5,800 tons in the tin market for last year, with global consumption amounting to 360,400 tons.
Last year, Myanmar contributed to 72% of China’s total imports of tin ores and concentrates, accounting for more than 180,000 tons. This figure slightly decreased to just below 77% or approximately 187,000 tons in 2022, as reported by Trade Data Monitor (TDM).
Short-Term Support and Long-Term Growth
In the short term, tin prices may find support from Indonesia, the world’s second-largest refined tin producer following China. Historically, Indonesian tin exports have experienced a decline during the early months of each year due to export license renewals, as noted by Citi analysts in a December report.
Looking ahead, the demand for tin is poised to accelerate significantly due to investments in and sales of electric vehicles and solar panels. Averion predicts that tin consumption from the green sector could more than double by 2030, reaching over 70,000 tons annually, equivalent to one-fifth of current consumption levels.