A Political Show of Strength
Analysts view Saab’s release as a signal to members of Maduro’s party that the president is committed to protecting his allies at any cost, even at the expense of his own resources. Luis Vicente Leon, director of Caracas consultancy Datanalisis, described it as “a demonstration of (Maduro’s) willingness not to abandon his own.” In 2020, Saab, a Colombian businessman, was appointed by Maduro as a diplomat to negotiate the shipment of fuel and humanitarian aid from Iran. Upon his return to Caracas, Saab expressed gratitude to the government for their support, emphasizing that Maduro’s administration would never abandon him.
Repercussions and U.S. Credibility
While the release of Saab deals a blow to U.S. credibility in the fight against corruption in Latin America, particularly in Venezuela, it also raises questions about Maduro’s compliance with other aspects of the election deal. Marshall Billingslea, a former assistant secretary of the U.S. Treasury, expressed concern over the impact of Saab’s release on U.S. relations with partner nations and the Venezuelan opposition, describing it as a “gut-punch” to both. However, a U.S. official defended President Joe Biden’s decision, stating that it was a difficult choice made to secure the release through negotiations. The official emphasized that offering something sought by the Venezuelan counterparts was necessary for the exchange to take place.
Remaining Uncertainties
Although some well-known opposition figures have been or could be released, doubts remain about Maduro’s fulfillment of other parts of the election deal. Sources suggest that arrest orders against three individuals involved in the campaign of opposition presidential candidate Maria Corina Machado are expected to be withdrawn. However, Machado’s campaign declined to comment on the matter. Additionally, Roberto Abdul, who was involved in organizing the opposition’s October primary and was recently detained, has been set free, according to a rights organization. However, analysts stress the importance of further progress, including lifting public office bans on some opposition members, announcing an election date, and providing other guarantees.