China’s Vulnerability in the Indian Ocean
Every day, around 60 fully loaded very large crude-oil carriers travel between the Persian Gulf and Chinese ports, transporting about half of the oil that fuels the world’s second-largest economy. These tankers enter the South China Sea, where China’s military presence is growing. However, as they cross the Indian Ocean, they lack protection in a naval theater mainly dominated by the U.S. This vulnerability is now under scrutiny by Western military and academic strategists, who are simulating scenarios of potential conflicts with China over Taiwan or elsewhere in East Asia.
Possible Escalatory Options
According to analysts, this longstanding weakness gives China’s adversaries various options to escalate tensions in a protracted conflict, similar to Russia’s war on Ukraine. These options range from harassment and interdiction operations against Chinese shipping, which could divert Chinese naval vessels to the region, to a blockade, sinking, or capturing of the tankers. Such tactics could dissuade China from taking action or increase the cost of an invasion of Taiwan.
Impact on China’s Calculations
While it’s unclear how this vulnerability affects Beijing’s calculations concerning Taiwan, Chinese strategists are aware of the problem. The ultimate decision to launch military action would lie with President Xi Jinping, according to PLA documents and retired officers. However, analysts believe that China would struggle to protect its oil lifelines, particularly if a conflict were to be prolonged. China’s oil demand is increasing, with 515.65 million tons of crude oil imported in the 11 months through November 2021 – an annual increase of 12.1%. Approximately 62% of China’s oil imports and 17% of its natural gas imports transit the Indian Ocean through key gateways like the Malacca Strait and South China Sea.
China’s Naval Deployments and Bases
China currently has just one dedicated military base in the Indian Ocean, located in Djibouti, which opened in 2017. While China has an extensive network of military satellites, it still lacks air cover and permanent PLA presence in the ocean. The U.S., on the other hand, has a significant presence in the Indian Ocean and is expanding its submarine patrols and base in Australia. China is gradually increasing deployments and exploring options for strengthening its position in the region.
The Future of Chinese Naval Presence in the Indian Ocean
Although China maintains several surveillance vessels, warships, and attack submarines in the Indian Ocean, it has not yet fully utilized its most potent assets. Some analysts predict that will change, especially as China emphasizes the importance of piracy patrols in safeguarding supply lines in the Indian Ocean. China’s attack submarines are also expected to range further as they improve, challenging the dominant position of the U.S. navy. However, China remains cautious about extending its air cover, which would be vital in a conflict.
Securing Shipments and China’s Energy Needs
Tracking and policing shipments to destinations like Japan, South Korea, and Australia would be a significant challenge if military operations targeted China. The country’s petroleum reserves are stored underground and cannot be tracked by satellites. While China has minimal surplus natural gas, it relies on pipelines from Russia, Central Asia, and Myanmar for increasing volumes. China is mostly self-sufficient in wheat and rice, with large stockpiles of both remaining a state secret. A classified report by the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission requested the Pentagon to assess the military requirements of a blockade on China’s energy shipments, including China’s potential to satisfy energy needs through stockpiles, rationing supplies, and overland shipments.