Biden’s 2024 Re-election Hopes and Economic Soft Landing
If the Federal Reserve successfully guides the U.S. economy to a “soft landing,” President Joe Biden’s 2024 re-election hopes may improve. The strength of this boost, however, is contingent on the degree to which unemployment rises and inflation falls as the economy slows.
In a benign scenario, inflation nears the Fed’s 2% target, the economy avoids or only goes through a mild downturn, unemployment comfortably remains below 5%, and Wall Street continues positive earnings growth.
Misery Index and its Impact on Approval Ratings
The “Misery Index,” which combines unemployment and inflation rates, has shown to significantly influence U.S. Presidents’ electoral prospects. Biden’s approval ratings are historically low despite current low levels of unemployment, but they could reasonably be expected to rise if inflation declines closer to 6%.
Economic projections from last week’s Federal Reserve officials’ meeting show a soft landing outlook for the economy, with revised growth projections and slightly altered forecasts for unemployment and inflation rates.
The relation between unemployment, inflation, and presidential approval ratings demonstrates that people’s well-being is affected by these factors. A focus on high inflation and the complex relationship between these economic variables may determine Biden’s chances in the 2024 election.