Price, Chart, and Analysis for EUR/USD
Seasonally adjusted GDP climbed by 0.1% in the Euro Area and held steady in the EU in the fourth quarter of 2022 compared to the third quarter. According to the official statement released by Eurostat, the European Union’s statistical agency, GDP increased by 0.3% in the third quarter of 2022 in both the Euro Area and the EU.
The EU economy is expected to avoid recession, but “headwinds prevail,” according to the European Commission’s Winter Economic Forecast, which was published yesterday. The EU’s 0.8% and the euro area’s 0.9% predicted growth rates for 2023 in the Winter interim forecast are respectively 0.5% and 0.6% higher than in the Autumn forecast. The inflation prediction was decreased, which is further good news. In the EU, headline inflation is anticipated to decrease from 9.2% in 2022 to 6.4% in 2023 and 2.8% in 2024. It is anticipated that the euro area’s growth rate would slow from 8.4% in 2022 to 5.6% in 2023 and 2.5% in 2024.
The most recent US inflation data, due out at 13:30 GMT, will be the next major influence on market price movement and might provide more insight into the future course of US interest rates. Both headline and annualized core inflation are expected to decline, although any departure from current market expectations would probably result in a period of volatility.
Retail Traders Increase Shorts While Cutting Longs
Data from retail traders reveal that 48.99% of traders are net long, with a short-to-long ratio of 1.04 to 1.
While the number of traders who are net-long has decreased by 15.70% from yesterday and by 16.54% from the previous week, the number of traders who are net-short has increased by 22.56% from yesterday and by 10.71% from the previous week.
We frequently adopt a contrarian stance to the general consensus, and the fact that traders are net short signals that EUR/USD prices may climb in the future. We have a higher EUR/USD-bullish contrarian trading bias as a result of the current attitude and recent movements, as traders are more net-short than they were yesterday and last week.