Prices, Charts, and Analysis for GBPUSD
This year, UK consumers will continue to suffer from sluggish growth and persistent inflation, according to the most recent blog post from the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR). The NIESR predicts that the official UK Q4 GDP, which will be reported tomorrow at 07:00 GMT, will show little to no economic growth, and that UK growth will likely stay at or near zero until 2023.
Given the delays in the transmission of monetary policy, the present cycle of monetary policy tightening will probably have an adverse effect on output and GDP in 2024.
At the Treasury Select Committee (TSC) today, MPC members Huw Pill, Professor Silvana Tenreyro, and Professor Jonathan Haskel joined Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey. They have so far been questioned over whether the central bank has behind in combating inflation. The MPC is remains concerned about persistently rising inflation, according to comments made so far by the BoE officials, and it’s possible that the UK economy may experience a protracted period of weakness.
Because of a slightly higher Pound and a lower US dollar, cable is back over 1.2100. Before 1.2292 is once again in view, the next level of resistance is expected around 1.2200 (50-dma).
Consumer Trader Increases Long Positions
According to statistics from retail traders, 57.77% of traders are net-long, with a long-to-short ratio of 1.37 to 1.
While the number of traders who are net-long has decreased 3.65% from yesterday and increased 45.78% from the previous week, the number of traders who are net-short has increased 7.67% from yesterday and decreased 23.56% from the previous week.
Since we normally don’t agree with the general consensus, the fact that traders are net-long signals that the price of GBP/USD may continue to decline. Less net-long than yesterday, but more net-long than last week, is the positioning.