Unhappy Voters
The Biden administration claims that the economy is thriving, with low unemployment rates and controlled inflation. However, many members of the public, particularly people of color and young voters, disagree. They argue that wages are not keeping up with the rising costs of essential goods and services, such as groceries, housing, and child and elder care. When the economy is discussed, Americans think about affordability, not just economic indicators. Despite offering vague proposals, Republicans are still viewed by a significant margin as better stewards of the economy. Trump resonates with the concerns of many white Americans in an increasingly diverse and culturally progressive country. Furthermore, there is a prevailing sense that homeownership, adequate wages, and college education are becoming increasingly unattainable for many individuals.
Trump’s Actions Not Disqualifying for Many Voters
Although critics within his own party, the Democratic Party, and the media consider him unfit for office, millions of voters disagree. Trump can emphasize his four years in office, arguing that the government machinery largely functioned, despite occasional chaos. Moreover, he can point out that the most serious allegations against him, such as collusion with Russia, were never proven.
Biden Gets All the Blame, No Credit
Trump can capitalize on the perception that the Biden administration has been unsuccessful in convincing the public that their job creation policies, including heavy government investment in infrastructure, clean energy, and chip manufacturing, have made a tangible difference in people’s lives. Additionally, Biden has been burdened with the responsibility of handling ongoing foreign wars that have divided Americans. Trump’s non-interventionist “America first” message may resonate with voters who are afraid of further involvement in conflicts like Ukraine or Israel, while Biden adheres to more traditional American foreign policy.
It is important to note that Trump’s potential victory is not guaranteed. He remains deeply unpopular in many regions and demographics. If he becomes the Republican nominee, it could lead to a high turnout in favor of Democrats. Trump’s inflammatory rhetoric, including threats against political enemies, might also alienate more moderate Republicans and independent voters, who are crucial to defeating Biden. Additionally, Democrats have successfully campaigned on defending abortion rights in previous elections, and they will likely make that issue central to their 2024 campaign. Nevertheless, at this juncture, 11 months before Election Day, Trump has a better chance of reclaiming the White House than at any point since he left office.